???? Macroeconomics drives financial markets and shapes investor sentiment worldwide. This week, despite a positive seasonal trend and generally strong corporate earnings, global stock markets faced pressure. The main factor? A less dovish than expected Fed statement, combined with investments in artificial intelligence that have yet to translate into productivity gains and tangible profits.
Since mid-April, the U.S. market has struggled to regain momentum, with consolidation phases remaining limited to less than 4%. Investors will closely watch the S&P 500 around 6700/6690, a key level whose breach could trigger a more significant market consolidation.
???? Current Economic Environment
Equity Markets
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Global stocks under pressure: Caution dominates despite encouraging corporate earnings.
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Limited seasonal support: Consolidation phases are shallow, reflecting contained but persistent volatility.
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Key technical levels: The S&P 500 between 6700 and 6690 is a critical point to anticipate next moves.
Bond Markets
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U.S. 10-year yield: Currently facing resistance between 4.14% and 4.24%.
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Dollar index: Stays below 100.25, limiting dollar strength despite Fed expectations.
Macro Drivers
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Monetary policy: The Fed remains cautious, constraining market enthusiasm.
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Innovation and productivity: Gains expected from AI investments have not yet materially impacted profits.
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Controlled volatility: Consolidation remains modest, offering opportunities but also the risk of reversal if key levels are breached.
???? Investment Recommendation
Investment Thesis
Macroeconomics remains a crucial guide to anticipate financial market movements. A cautious but selective approach allows investors to benefit from consolidation phases and opportunities in a volatile environment.
Why Invest Now
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Selectivity: Indices remain near highs, allowing identification of strategic entry points.
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Diversification: Macro factors influence all sectors, offering cross-market exposure.
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Tactical opportunities: Contained volatility favors swing trading or portfolio adjustments.
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Key indicators: S&P 500, bond yields, and the dollar index serve as signals for risk management or position strengthening.
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Long-term perspective: Even with consolidation phases, the U.S. market has remained structurally strong since mid-April.
Risks to Monitor
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Tighter-than-expected monetary policy.
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Delayed productivity gains from AI investments.
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Breach of critical technical levels, potentially triggering deeper consolidations.
Recommendation
Cautious / Tactical Short-Term Approach
→ Suitable for investors seeking to follow macroeconomic trends and adjust exposure to risk.