The Gulf economies will be major beneficiaries from higher energy prices, and our growth forecasts sit far above the consensus. Growth is likely to be well above consensus expectations. It goes without saying that hydrocarbon sectors are important to the Gulf economies, and they affect GDP growth through two channels: a) real value added in the sector itself, and b) hydrocarbon sectors indirectly via incomes.
Outside the Gulf, higher inflation and tighter fiscal policies will weigh on growth, which will, ultimately, reduce demand for oil. One longer-term consequence of these developments is that interest rates will be raised—and by more than most expect.
| GDP (% y/y forecasts) | ||||
| Country / Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Credit view |
| Saudi Arabia | 10% | 5% | 3% | n/a |
| UAE | 8.50% | 7.80% | 3.80% | Credit outlook |
| Qatar | 3.50% | 3.30% | 2.00% | n/a |
| Kuwait | 9.80% | 4.80% | 3.30% | Credit outlook |
| Jorand | 2.60% | 3.20% | 3.30% | Credit outlook |
| Oman | 8.30% | 3.20% | 2.50% | Credit outlook |
| Bahrain | 5.80% | 4.50% | 3.10% | Credit outlook |
| Egypt | 5.90% | 5.20% | 5.40% | Credit outlook |
| Dev. Market (G7) | 5.10% | 3.20% | 2.10% | |
Sources: Refinitiv, World bank, IX-7