Gold: a rally driven by the search for safety
Gold continues its spectacular rise and now trades around USD 5,200 per ounce, comfortably above the psychological USD 5,000 threshold. This momentum is supported by three major drivers:
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Safety demand, reinforced by persistent tensions between the United States and Iran. The nuclear negotiations in Geneva have not dispelled the risks, keeping the geopolitical premium elevated.
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Uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, particularly tariffs, which pushes investors toward safe‑haven assets.
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Falling US Treasury yields, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non‑yielding asset.
Gold prices also move in sync with US–Iran discussions:
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diplomatic progress tends to calm markets and limit the upside,
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a breakdown or escalation immediately revives safe‑haven demand.
Gold is acting as a direct barometer of geopolitical risk, a role confirmed by recent market analyses.
Economic environment: a market dominated by geopolitics
Investors are navigating an environment where:
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US–Iran nuclear negotiations have become the main catalyst for market movements. The anticipation of an agreement—or a failure—creates directional volatility.
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The risk of conflict remains high, with increased US military presence in the region, which supports gold.
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US trade tensions add another layer of uncertainty, strengthening the appeal of precious metals.
In this context, gold benefits from a rare alignment: high geopolitical risk + macro uncertainty + falling bond yields.
Industrial metals: cautious stability in copper
On the industrial metals side, the market is more cautious:
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Traders are closely watching Chinese economic data following the post–Lunar New Year reopening.
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Copper remains stable around USD 13,300 per tonne, reflecting a market waiting for clearer signals on real demand.
Unlike gold, industrial metals are driven more by economic fundamentals than by geopolitics.
Investment view: why hold gold today
Gold appears particularly relevant in the current environment:
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Geopolitical protection: it is the ultimate safe‑haven asset in the event of an escalation in the Middle East.
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Diversification: it reduces volatility in a portfolio exposed to equities and bonds.
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Risk asymmetry:
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if US–Iran negotiations progress → mild consolidation,
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if they fail → significant upside potential (some analyses point to USD 5,800 in the event of escalation).
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Supportive monetary backdrop: declining bond yields mechanically strengthen gold.
Gold is therefore a strategic asset in a portfolio, especially at a time when geopolitical and trade risks are simultaneously elevated.