The announcement of a ceasefire, even a precarious one, between the United States and Iran has revived risk appetite and triggered a sharp rebound across financial markets. Equities surged, while the dollar weakened, reflecting a rapid shift by investors toward more cyclical assets. This geopolitical easing also caused a steep drop in oil prices before a modest recovery, as market participants await concrete signs of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains largely paralyzed. Sovereign bonds are moving more cautiously: the German 10‑year Bund is holding above 2.90%, supported by persistent energy‑related inflation concerns and increased funding needs tied to public investment.
Market sentiment continued to improve throughout the week, driven by hopes of a lasting de‑escalation in the Middle East and by the prospect of further diplomatic negotiations over the weekend. The decline in oil prices has helped ease inflation fears, reinforcing the idea that the worst may be behind us. After losing 6.5% in March, its worst monthly performance in three years, the MSCI World has already rebounded by 5% in early April, fueled by the belief that markets may have hit their low point at the end of March. Still, this recovery remains fragile: earnings season begins next week and could reignite volatility, especially as profit expectations remain elevated.
Sector dynamics also point to a shift in regime. The artificial intelligence theme, briefly overshadowed by geopolitical tensions, is back in focus. Hardware suppliers and major tech platforms are benefiting, while the software ecosystem appears to be the potential loser from code automation. On the macroeconomic front, the coming week will be dominated by a series of Chinese data releases, essential for assessing the strength of the global recovery, and by U.S. producer prices, which will be particularly sensitive to the energy‑related pressures observed in March. In this environment, a cautious allocation remains advisable: the rebound is real, but still heavily dependent on external factors and economic signals that must confirm the trend.