Markets whipsaw as geopolitics reasserts control

The past week offered a stark reminder that global markets remain governed less by earnings and more by geopolitics. The brief but violent spike in oil, more than 10% intraday before reversing, underscored how sensitive investors have become to any escalation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. The move triggered a rapid oscillation between inflation‑shock fears and relief‑rally optimism, leaving cross‑asset positioning unusually unstable. Energy names surged, while cyclicals and transport swung sharply as traders attempted to price the probability of a supply disruption that, in a worst‑case scenario, could push crude toward $150–170 and tip major economies into recession.