Oil prices remain firmly supported as geopolitical tensions intensify across the Middle East. Brent briefly crossed the 100 USD per barrel threshold this week, its first time since May, before easing back to around 98 USD. WTI trades near 90 USD, up roughly 10% over the past five sessions. Markets are increasingly pricing in the risk of supply disruptions, particularly in three strategic zones: the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Black Sea.
In the Strait of Hormuz, oil traffic has slowed sharply, reaching particularly low levels according to maritime tracking data. In the Red Sea, Houthi-claimed attacks on Saudi vessels have heightened concerns around the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a critical corridor for energy exports to Asia. Meanwhile, ongoing disruptions in the Black Sea, linked to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, continue to weigh on global supply flows.
Refined product markets are also under pressure: European diesel and jet fuel inventories remain below their five-year average, while a potential extension of Russia’s diesel export ban could further tighten price conditions. In this environment, oil markets are moving within a landscape where geopolitical risks overshadow traditional supply-demand fundamentals.