Oil remains the asset that conditions inflation, corporate margins and the geopolitics of energy.
Analysis
The week ended lower on rumours of a massive release of European crude and diesel stocks via the IEA. Germany denied receiving a formal request, leaving doubt over the scope. Meanwhile OPEC+ postponed its capacity review to 2027, Saudi Aramco is keeping export flows high, and China banned fuel exports, which sent Asian refining margins to record levels.
Opportunity
The opportunity lies in refiners and in the volatility of distillates, more than in crude itself. The risk is a fresh supply shock or the political use of reserves.
Investor outlook
Neutral to negative short term outlook for crude prices. Oil depends on political decisions more than on demand, which calls for caution.
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