The energy sector remains particularly sensitive to geopolitical dynamics and decisions by major global players. This week, oil prices rebounded due to anticipation surrounding the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and a U.S. ultimatum issued by Donald Trump to Russia, creating an atmosphere of uncertainty but also heightened vigilance in the markets.
Latest Macroeconomic Developments
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Rising oil prices: Brent crude rose to $71.65 per barrel and WTI to $69.40, marking a recovery after weeks of volatility.
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OPEC+ meeting: Scheduled for this weekend, it is expected to confirm an increase in production by 548,000 barrels per day starting in September, in line with market expectations.
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Ultimatum to Russia: Donald Trump has set a 10-day deadline for Russia to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine, threatening severe sanctions and tariffs of up to 100% on trading partners importing Russian oil.
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Impact on Asian importers: Indian refiners, major buyers of Russian oil, are concerned about potential sanctions that could disrupt their supply chains.
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Substitution of Russian oil: Middle Eastern oil could compensate for reduced Russian imports, thus limiting the risk of shortages, especially in Asia.
Analyst Recommendations
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Cautious short-term stance: Analysts recommend close monitoring of evolving geopolitical tensions that directly impact oil prices. Volatility is expected around OPEC+ decisions and U.S. measures against Russia.
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Positive medium-term outlook: Despite uncertainties, global demand remains strong, particularly in Asia, and producer countries’ ability to adjust supply should maintain overall market balance.
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Favored energy sectors: Middle Eastern oil producers may benefit from increased demand and prices, as well as companies adept at managing geopolitical risks.