The week was dominated by two major U.S. indicators: growth and inflation. Fourth‑quarter GDP rose by only 1.4% at an annualized rate, half the pace expected. The 43‑day government shutdown last autumn clearly weighed on activity, particularly on consumption, which slowed to 2.4% compared with 3.5% in the previous quarter.
At the same time, December’s PCE inflation surprised to the upside, coming in at +3% year‑on‑year — its fastest pace since February 2025. This combination of disappointing growth and persistent inflation is reinforcing investor doubts about the trajectory of the U.S. economy. The bond market reacted immediately: the 10‑year Treasury briefly fell below 4%, its lowest level of the year, reflecting renewed concerns about growth.
Hopes for rapid support from the Federal Reserve appear unrealistic. Minutes from the January meeting show that a majority of members favor maintaining the current stance for an extended period, despite the slowdown in activity. Markets must therefore contend with a cautious central bank, reluctant to ease policy until inflation shows a more convincing decline.
On the political front, the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump adds another layer of uncertainty. The White House still has legal tools to reintroduce such measures, suggesting the potential for renewed volatility on the trade front. This ruling also comes at a tense geopolitical moment, as the United States increases pressure on Iran and the risk of a military operation remains present.
In the short term, the U.S. economy is operating in a grey zone: weakening growth, inflation still too high, a monetary policy on hold, and geopolitical uncertainty in the background. For investors, the macro environment remains asymmetric, with heightened volatility risks across rates, currencies, and cyclical assets.