The Russian Federation, as we know it under Vladimir Putin, is already a dead structure walking. Its collapse is no longer a matter of if, but when.
With over 790,000 military casualties reported since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine—figures comparable to Soviet losses in the entire Afghanistan war—the core of Russia’s conventional military strength is being gutted. Simultaneously, Russia’s bifurcated economy, split between wartime production and heavily sanctioned civilian sectors, continues to erode under the weight of international isolation and unsustainable fiscal pressure. By comparison, the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991 followed a decade-long economic stagnation; Russia today is burning through its structural capacity at a much faster rate.
Based on current indicators, three plausible pathways exist when Ukraine inevitably achieves a major strategic breakthrough:
- Coup (65% probability):
A faction within the FSB (Federal Security Service), backed by military elites and oligarchs disillusioned by endless losses, forcibly removes Putin. This transitional authority would seek to negotiate a ceasefire or phased withdrawal from Ukraine, aiming to preserve the territorial integrity of what remains of the Federation. Historically, this mirrors the 1953 arrest of Lavrentiy Beria after Stalin’s death—a rapid internal coup to preserve systemic continuity while sacrificing a despotic figurehead.
- Consolidation (25% probability):
In this scenario, hardliners within the Kremlin—potentially figures like Nikolai Patrushev or Sergei Shoigu—seize greater power, drastically increasing domestic repression to maintain control. Such a regime could delay Russia’s collapse for 1 to 3 years, similar to how the Romanian regime under Nicolae Ceaușescu briefly maintained brutal control before rapidly imploding in 1989.
- Fragmentation (10% probability):
A genuine breakup of the Russian Federation would see regional separatist movements gain traction in Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Chechnya, Dagestan, and across the North Caucasus. Meanwhile, China would likely assert greater influence over Siberia and the Russian Far East, through economic infiltration and “soft annexation” mechanisms—a dynamic reminiscent of Qing China’s gradual absorption of Outer Mongolia during the late 19th century.
Key Insight:
Russia itself will not vanish; it will transform — likely into a weaker, more decentralized set of successor states or a significantly diminished unitary state.
Ukraine is existential for Putin, not for Russia itself.
The Kremlin’s propaganda machine has falsely framed the war as a battle for Russian survival. However, the true existential crisis is personal: it is Putin’s own political survival that hinges entirely on the outcome in Ukraine.
Thus, the critical question is not whether the current Russian system collapses, but how violent, chaotic, or externally exploitable that collapse will be.