Corporate earnings grew on average by 12.5 % annually for the last 25 year. In the period 2020 -2020, the number has gone up in some quarters to a minimum of 14.5 % (annualized) and to a maximum of 16.5 % (annualized). In the same context, the nominal GDP has a long-term average trend of 4.5 % (annually) while at present it is around 9% (annualized).
The mean reversion back to the average area could mean that we face some negative year-over-year changes in earnings. This is known as a “profit recession”.