When a rocky world forms where physics says it shouldn’t, it’s a reminder: assumptions fail quietly, then all at once. Let’s dive into it.
I. A system that should not exist
Astronomers observing the red dwarf LHS 1903 have identified a configuration that contradicts three decades of exoplanet formation theory: a rocky “super‑Earth” orbiting outside two gas‑rich mini‑Neptunes. The anomaly is not cosmetic. It undermines the core assumption that planetary formation follows a predictable radial gradient: rocky planets inside, gas giants outside.
The data are clear:
- Four planets, all orbiting closer to their star than Mercury does to the Sun
- Two rocky super‑Earths (2–10 Earth masses)
- Two mini‑Neptunes, gas‑rich and larger than Earth
- The outermost planet, with a mass of 5.8 Earths, is rocky, not gaseous
- Estimated surface temperature: 60°C, within the extreme edge of habitability
The sequencing is the problem. Gas giants require abundant volatile material; rocky planets form when that material is scarce. Yet here, the rocky planet appears to have formed after its gas‑rich neighbours, in a depleted environment.
This is a reminder that even well‑established models can fail when the underlying conditions shift. And that is precisely the challenge facing Europe and Switzerland today: long‑standing economic assumptions are being reordered by structural scarcity, geopolitical fragmentation, and technological acceleration.
II. The economics of broken models
Financial markets, like planetary systems, rely on ordering principles. Many of Europe’s own macroeconomic assumptions, stable inflation, predictable energy flows, frictionless trade, and demographic equilibrium, have been strained or inverted over the past decade.
1. Inflation, fragmentation, and the ECB’s credibility test
The eurozone’s inflation shock was not supposed to happen. For years, the ECB struggled to lift inflation up to 2%. Then, in 2022, it surged to 10.6%, the highest in the currency union’s history. Switzerland, typically insulated, saw inflation rise to 3.5%, its highest in nearly 30 years.
The policy response was equally unprecedented:
- The ECB raised rates by 450 bps in 18 months
- The SNB lifted rates from –0.75% to 1.75%, ending the negative‑rate era
- European sovereign spreads widened, revealing the fragility of monetary union
The model broke. The environment changed.
2. Europe’s energy inversion
Europe’s energy system has undergone its own inside‑out moment. The assumption that Russian gas would remain cheap and abundant collapsed overnight.
- Russian pipeline gas to the EU fell by over 80% between 2021 and 2023
- LNG imports surged, with the EU becoming the world’s largest LNG buyer
- Electricity prices in Germany peaked at €700/MWh during the crisis
- Switzerland accelerated hydro and solar investments to reduce import dependence
The sequencing inverted: renewables and grid reinforcement, once considered long‑term, became immediate priorities.
3. Demographics, labour scarcity, and productivity stagnation
Europe’s demographic profile is now a structural constraint:
- The eurozone’s working‑age population is shrinking by 0.3% per year
- Switzerland faces acute shortages in healthcare, engineering, and IT
- Productivity growth in the EU has averaged 0.7% over the past decade
Scarcity is no longer a cyclical inconvenience; it is a structural organizing principle.
The parallel with the LHS 1903 system is striking: when resources become scarce, the order of outcomes changes.
III. The forward view: Investing in a non‑linear Europe
The LHS 1903 discovery is a case study in how complex systems behave when assumptions collide with reality. For Europe and Switzerland, three secular implications stand out.
1. Europe’s non‑linear transition economy
The continent is entering a decade defined by discontinuities:
- AI adoption is accelerating from a low base; Europe accounts for only 7–10% of global AI investment
- Energy transition capex in the EU is projected to exceed €600 billion annually by 2030
- Industrial policy is back, with the EU’s Net‑Zero Industry Act and Switzerland’s strategic autonomy initiatives
Linear extrapolation is a liability. Europe’s transition will be jagged, uneven, and opportunity‑rich.
2. Adaptive modelling for a fragmented continent
Just as astronomers must revise their formation theories, European policymakers and investors must shift from deterministic frameworks to adaptive, data‑rich systems.
- Real‑time electricity‑market data
- High‑frequency wage and vacancy indicators
- AI‑driven supply‑chain risk modelling
- Scenario‑based stress tests for energy, climate, and geopolitics
Switzerland, with its tradition of institutional pragmatism, is well‑positioned to lead in adaptive modelling, but it must invest aggressively in digital infrastructure and data governance.
3. Europe’s role in the expanding space economy
The LHS 1903 discovery is a product of rising observational capacity, an area where Europe and Switzerland have strategic stakes.
- The EU’s space budget exceeds €16 billion for 2021–2027
- Switzerland is a key contributor to ESA missions, including Cheops
- Europe’s Earth‑observation market is growing at 10–12% annually
- Space‑based climate data is becoming essential for regulatory compliance (CSRD, taxonomy)
Unexpected discoveries increase the value of the next. Europe’s space sector is becoming a compounding information asset, and a geopolitical one.
Conclusion: Europe’s future will not form in order
The LHS 1903 system is a reminder that the universe does not always assemble itself according to our expectations. Neither does Europe’s economy. The next decade will reward investors who recognize that scarcity, sequencing, and structural shifts can invert long‑standing patterns.
In astronomy, a rocky planet formed where it “shouldn’t.” In Europe, the next major winners may emerge from sectors long considered exhausted: energy infrastructure, industrial automation, climate technology, and space‑based data.
The future, in other words, may be built inside‑out.