Oil: Stable prices but persistent geopolitical threats

Oil remains the

most closely watched strategic commodity worldwide

, serving as fuel, industrial raw material, and an investment asset. The two
main benchmarks are Brent (European/global reference) and
WTI (U.S. reference). Currently, Brent is trading around
$63 per barrel and WTI at $58.30,
reflecting relative stability despite significant geopolitical tensions.

Economic Environment and Context of the Article

• Geopolitical Tensions:

  • Discussions between
    
    Moscow and Washington regarding Ukraine
    
    remain stalled, keeping uncertainty over Russian energy
    supply.

  • Ukraine continues to target Russian energy infrastructure,
    including the Syzran oil refinery, which
    could potentially disrupt production and exports.

  • U.S.–Venezuela tensions: Any escalation
    could limit Venezuelan oil exports, adding risk to global
    supply.

• OPEC+ Production:

  • OPEC+ maintains its production targets for early 2026.

  • Internal debates about members’ maximum production
    capacities remain a source of conflict, which could affect
    future OPEC+ decisions and influence prices in the medium
    term.

• Prices and Stability:

• The oil market is currently range-bound, reflecting a fragile
  balance between
  
  stable supply (OPEC+) and geopolitical risks
  
  .

• Investors are closely monitoring tensions and global production
  capacity, which are key drivers of volatility for Brent and WTI

Investment Recommendation

Why Invest in Oil Today:

1. Geopolitical and Inflation Hedge:Oil remains a
   safe-haven asset during geopolitical uncertainty or inflation,
   providing a hedge against economic risks.

2. Upside Potential from Conflicts:Any escalation in
   Ukraine or Venezuela could disrupt supply, causing short-term price
   spikes.

3. Attractive Returns via Derivatives or
   ETFs:Investors can capitalize on fluctuations through
   
   oil ETFs, futures contracts, or major oil company shares
   
   .

4. Global Energy Demand – Despite the energy
   transition, demand remains solid in Asia and the U.S., supporting
   barrel prices.

⚠️ Risks to Consider

• The market is sensitive to OPEC+ announcements, geopolitical
  tensions, and global demand changes.

• Energy transition initiatives (renewables, climate regulations)
  could limit long-term growth potential.

• U.S. inventory data and macroeconomic trends heavily influence
  volatility.

Recommended Position:

Accumulate / Opportunistic Buy

over a short- to medium-term horizon, taking advantage of geopolitical
volatility and potential supply-driven price increases.