Financial markets experienced a midweek slowdown, but this does not signal a major consolidation. Third-quarter earnings forecasts remain bullish, which should support the upward trend in the markets.
The latest inflation figures are in line with expectations, and U.S. household spending is slightly above forecasts. Overall, these macroeconomic indicators support the central scenario of a gradual monetary easing, with prospects for moderate but sustained growth.
The only element to monitor closely is the strengthening of the dollar, which could influence capital flows and market performance, especially as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields face resistance around 4.20%.
Current Economic Environment
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Corporate earnings forecasts: Third-quarter earnings expectations remain solid.
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Inflation under control: Recent data aligns with expectations, supporting the Fed’s monetary policy.
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Robust consumption: U.S. household spending slightly exceeds forecasts, supporting domestic economic growth.
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Dollar and bonds: Dollar strength and bond yields need to be monitored for their impact on equity and commodity markets.
?? Macro Snapshot – Week Overview
| Indicator | Current Situation | Market Impact | Strategic Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate Earnings (Q3) | Forecasts trending up | Supports upward market trend | Buying opportunities on dips, especially in U.S. indices and cyclical sectors |
| U.S. Inflation | In line with expectations | Confirms monetary easing scenario | Maintains appetite for equities, less pressure on the Fed |
| U.S. Household Spending | Slightly above forecasts | Supports domestic growth | Encourages exposure to consumer and retail sectors |
| U.S. Dollar | Strengthening, to watch | Influences capital flows and equity valuations | Monitor closely to adjust hedging and international allocations |
| 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields | Resistance around 4.20% | Potential headwind for some asset classes | Adjust portfolio according to yield evolution and risk appetite |
?? Key Takeaways
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Strong earnings forecasts and solid consumption continue to support market momentum.
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Controlled inflation allows for a gradual monetary easing scenario.
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Dollar strengthening and bond yield resistance are the main risks to monitor.
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Temporary pullbacks remain long-term buying opportunities.
Investment Recommendation
Why continue investing in the markets?
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Bullish context for equities: Strong earnings forecasts support the overall market trend.
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Macro-strategic diversification: Exposure to U.S. indices and cyclical sectors allows investors to benefit from moderate growth and monetary easing.
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Risk management: Monitoring the dollar and interest rates allows portfolio adjustments in response to bond market developments.
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Opportunities on temporary corrections: Short-term pullbacks can provide attractive entry points for long-term positions.