Hydrocarbons, and in particular crude oil (Brent and WTI) and natural gas, remain key resources in the global economy. They play a central role in energy production, transportation, industry, and heating, while also representing major financial assets in commodity markets. Oil has historically been sensitive to economic cycles, supply–demand balances, and geopolitical factors. Natural gas, by contrast, has become increasingly strategic since the European energy crisis, notably due to the energy transition, the role of LNG, and climate dependence (weather conditions).
🌍 Current economic environment
⚖️ Oil Caught in a squeeze
The oil market is currently operating in a zone of high uncertainty, pulled in opposite directions by two conflicting forces:
• Structural downward pressure
- EIA data show an unexpected rise in U.S. inventories, both in crude oil (+3.6 Mb) and gasoline (+6 Mb), signaling weakened demand.
- The IEA continues to anticipate a structural market surplus, despite a slight upward revision to demand forecasts for 2026.
- These factors help explain why Brent is capped around USD 65.80 and WTI around USD 61, levels consistent with abundant supply but lacking sustained tension.
• Latent geopolitical support
- Tensions in the Middle East, particularly the threat of U.S. military intervention against Iran and the deployment of naval forces in the region, have revived fears of supply disruptions.
- For now, however, these risks remain largely psychological, masking an underlying market that is broadly oversupplied.
👉 Result: highly volatile prices, swinging back and forth in response to macroeconomic and geopolitical headlines.
🔥 Natural Gas under severe pressure
In contrast to oil, natural gas is experiencing a pronounced bullish tension:
- An intense cold wave across the United States, particularly affecting Texas, has triggered a surge in heating demand.
- This rally has spilled over into Europe, where Dutch TTF gas prices have risen by around 10%, briefly surpassing EUR 40/MWh.
- Europe is also facing relatively low storage levels, increasing price sensitivity to weather-related shocks.
👉 Natural gas therefore currently appears to be the most tightly constrained resource within the energy complex.
📈 Investment recommendation — Why invest in energy today?
✅ 1. A Macro diversification asset
Oil and gas offer partial decoupling from equity markets, making them effective portfolio diversification tools, especially during periods of geopolitical or climatic stress.
✅ 2. Natural Gas as a tactical opportunity
In the short to medium term, natural gas benefits from:
- Climate dependence (harsh winters).
- Constrained European inventories.
- A critical role in energy security.
👉 This makes natural gas particularly attractive through ETFs, futures, or gas-focused producers.
⚠️ 3. Oil: A more cautious approach
Oil remains:
- Exposed to a structural supply surplus.
- Sensitive to economic slowdown signals.
- Supported mainly by intermittent geopolitical risks.
👉 Exposure to oil should therefore be tactical and opportunistic rather than structural.
🧭 Investment conclusion
Energy remains a relevant investment theme, but one that requires differentiation:
- Natural gas: bullish bias in the short to medium term.
- Oil: high volatility, limited upside without a major supply shock.