Macroeconomics analyzes the major economic balances at the level of a country or region: growth, inflation, employment, fiscal and monetary policy. In the current context, the U.S. macroeconomy plays a central role in guiding global financial markets, both due to the United States’ weight in the global economy and the direct influence of its political and trade decisions on capital flows and market sentiment.
Economic environment and market context
The article highlights a now well-known pattern of the Trump presidency, often summarized by the acronym TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). Behind apparent instability and dramatic threats, in this case regarding Greenland and potential new tariffs, lies an aggressive negotiation strategy followed by a calculated de-escalation aimed at obtaining concrete economic and geopolitical concessions.
While these announcements create temporary spikes in financial market volatility, their actual impact tends to fade quickly once the rhetoric softens. After a week that began with heightened nervousness on European and U.S. markets, Trump’s more conciliatory speech at Davos allowed for a partial market rebound, although uncertainty remains high.
On the fundamental side, U.S. macroeconomic indicators are sending very positive signals. Third-quarter GDP growth has been significantly revised upward to +4.4%, and expectations for the fourth quarter are +5.4%, confirming the strength of economic activity. At the same time, core inflation (PCE Core) has declined to +2.7% year-on-year, reinforcing the idea of a soft landing for the U.S. economy.
This combination, sustained growth and decelerating inflation, creates a particularly favorable environment for equity markets, despite persistent political noise.
Investment Recommendation
Why invest in this macroeconomic context?
Despite erratic political communication and recurring geopolitical tensions, U.S. economic fundamentals remain solid. Volatility episodes linked to Trump’s announcements are better seen as tactical opportunities rather than signals of a structural market reversal.
The current dynamic supports a continued uptrend in equity markets, backed by robust growth, better-controlled inflation, and a clearer medium-term monetary environment. Investors who can look beyond political noise can take advantage of these periods of uncertainty to increase exposure to risk assets, particularly U.S. equities.
Recommendation:
👉 Maintain or increase exposure to equity markets, favoring a selective and disciplined approach while accepting short-term volatility linked to political factors.