?? Metals play a strategic role in the global economy, both for industry and finance. Copper, essential for electronics and infrastructure, reflects overall economic health, while gold remains a preferred safe haven for investors amid financial and geopolitical uncertainties.
This week, three-month copper futures in London fell to $10,682, interrupting a very strong price trend this year. The decline is mainly due to the weak Chinese manufacturing PMI, leaving investors waiting for upcoming economic indicators and potential interest rate decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Gold, on the other hand, rose slightly and is trading around $4,000 per ounce, supported by the partial U.S. government shutdown, a pullback in equities, and a weaker U.S. jobs market, which increases the probability of a rate cut in December.
?? Current Economic Environment
Copper
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Demand on hold: Slower Chinese manufacturing activity is dampening industrial demand.
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Price pullback: After a strong year, the market is pausing while awaiting economic signals.
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Macro factors: U.S. Fed decisions and international trade tensions directly impact prices.
Gold
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Safe haven: Gold benefits from geopolitical and economic uncertainties, including the U.S. shutdown and fiscal deficits.
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Interest rates: The likelihood of U.S. rate cuts enhances gold’s appeal relative to yield-bearing assets.
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Volatility: After reaching a record above $4,350, gold has fallen about 9%, but remains in a long-term upward trend.
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Outlook: UBS and Goldman Sachs anticipate gold could reach $4,200–$4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, while HSBC expects a possible peak in H1 2026. Central bank buying supports the rally, but mining output and weaker demand for jewelry and coins could limit gains.
?? Investment Recommendation
Investment Thesis
Metals provide both industrial exposure through copper and financial protection through gold. Current volatility creates opportunities for investors able to manage macro and geopolitical risks.
Why Invest in Metals
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Diversification: Gold protects against economic and financial uncertainty.
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Economic indicator: Copper reflects industrial demand and global economic health.
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Tactical opportunities: Price fluctuations offer strategic entry points.
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Inflation hedge: Gold maintains real value even in a low-rate environment.
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Geopolitical hedge: Global tensions can support gold prices.
Risks to Monitor
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Weakening Chinese copper demand.
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Interest rate changes and central bank policy decisions.
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Geopolitical and trade tensions affecting supply and demand.
Recommendation
Accumulate / Medium-term strategic
→ Suitable for investors seeking a combination of industrial exposure and safe-haven assets, with tolerance for volatility.